← Card Merchant Hamilton Regionals
Water AlliesTier 2
at Card Merchant Hamilton Regionals
decks
1
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
7-1-1
overall winrate
83.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
65.4%
avg ELO +7.1 per match
expected value
60.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1513
· median 1513
· range 1513–1513
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1036
Q1 1216
Q3 1395
1599
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 19.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.2% | +4.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 13.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 13.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.4% | +3.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.7% | +7.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Beast | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
